It seems the lockdown had an unintended benefit -- blue skies.
- sidneybighamcorpor5
- Jul 20, 2020
- 9 min read
China, the world's biggest greenhouse gas polluter, has no plans to cut its emissions anytime soon. Under its Paris Agreement pledges, Beijing has promised to hit peak emissions by 2030. So for the next decade, they're only going to go up.
Then suddenly, this colossal, coal-powered economy has slashed emissions by 25%, according to numbers crunched by Lauri Myllyvirta at the University of Helsinki's Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air. Not because of the climate crisis, but the COVID-19 public health emergency.
Factories were shuttered and streets were cleared across China's Hubei province as authorities ordered residents to stay home to stop the spread of the coronavirus.
The average number of "good quality air days" increased 21.5% in February, compared to the same period last year, according to China's Ministry of Ecology and Environment.
As the world's biggest polluter, China contributes 30% of the world's CO2 emissions annually, so the impact of this kind of drop is huge, even over a short period. CREA estimates it is equivalent to 200 million tons of carbon dioxide -- more than half the entire annual emissions output of the UK.
As a measure that took place effectively overnight, this is more dramatic than anything else that anyone has ever seen in terms of the impact on emissions.
Satellite images released by NASA and the European Space Agency show a dramatic reduction in nitrogen dioxide emissions -- those released by vehicles, power plants and industrial facilities -- in major Chinese cities between January and February. The visible cloud of toxic gas hanging over industrial powerhouses almost disappeared.
This is the first time many has ever seen a dramatic drop-off over such a wide area for a specific event, since many cities nationwide have taken measures to minimize the spread of the virus.
A similar pattern has emerged with carbon dioxide (CO2) -- released by burning fossil fuels such as coal. From February 3 to March 1, CO2 emissions were down by at least 25% because of the measures to contain the coronavirus, according to the Center for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CREA), an air pollution research organization.
It happen in a matter of days. Canal water in Venice has cleared up without boat traffic. Air pollution in China has plunged amid unprecedented lockdowns. In Thailand and Japan, mobs of monkeys and deer are roaming streets now devoid of tourists. In North America, beers and all sorts of mountain cats are roaming more freely.
The coronavirus pandemic is shutting down countries across the world, causing a significant decline in air pollution in major cities as countries implement stricter quarantines and travel restrictions.
Satellite images from NASA’s Earth Observatory show significant drops in pollution across China and Italy since the start of the outbreak, as travel restrictions in those countries halt air, train and road traffic.
As for the environmental benefits we see from the slowdown of day-to-day life and economic activity in terms of improving air quality and other slight benefits, it’s a good sign that our ecosystems are somewhat resilient if we don’t destroy them. All this looks like good news for the planet — at least in the short term.
The reduction in pollution may have even saved more lives than the death toll caused by the deadly virus in China. According to rough calculations done by Stanford University scientist Marshall Burke, the reduction in air pollution may have helped saved the lives of 77,000 people in China under the age of five, and over 70, Given the huge amount of evidence that breathing dirty air contributes heavily to premature mortality.
Traffic levels in the city were estimated to be down 35% compared with a year ago. Emissions of carbon monoxide, mainly due to cars and trucks, have fallen by around 50% for a couple of days this week according to researchers at Columbia University.
They also found that there was a 5-10% drop in CO2 over New York and a solid drop in methane as well. New York has had exceptionally high carbon monoxide numbers for the last year and a half, and this is the cleanest I have ever seen it. It's is less than half of what we normally see in March."
An analysis carried out for the climate website Carbon Brief suggested there had been a 25% drop in energy use and emissions in China over a two week period. This is likely to lead to an overall fall of about 1% in China's carbon emissions this year, experts believe.
Both China and Northern Italy have also recorded significant falls in nitrogen dioxide, which is related to reduced car journeys and industrial activity. The gas is a serious air pollutant and also indirectly contributes to the warming of the planet.
With aviation grinding to a halt and millions of people working from home, a range of emissions across many countries are likely following the same downward path.
While people working from home will likely increase the use of home heating and electricity, the curbing of commuting and the general slowdown in economies will likely have an impact on overall emissions.
Earth will have the smallest increase in May to May peak CO2 that we've had in the northern hemisphere since 2009, or even before, and believed that the shutdown will impact CO2 levels for the whole of this year.
It will depend on how long the pandemic lasts, and how widespread the slowdown is in the economy particularly in the US. If it lasts another three of four months, certainly we could see much more reduction.
In China, the pressure to resume business as usual is so great there have been reports of local governments ordering workerless factories to run their machines just to use up power, with the expectation that their superiors will be looking at electricity consumption as a sign of recovery.
What's likely to make a major difference to the scale of carbon emissions and air pollution is how governments decide to re-stimulate their economies once the pandemic eases.
Back in the 2008-09, after the global financial crash, carbon emissions shot up by 5% as a result of stimulus spending that boosted fossil fuel use.
In the coming months, governments will have a chance to alter that outcome. They could insist, for instance, that any bailout of airlines would be tied to far more stringent reductions in aviation emissions. Governments now have to be really cautious on how they re-stimulate their economies, mindful of not locking in fossil fuels again.
They should focus those things that are ready to go that would lower emissions, like renovating buildings, putting in heat pumps and electric chargers. These are not complicated and can be done straight away, they are just waiting for financial incentives.
However, some argue that if the pandemic goes on a long time, any stimulus would more likely focus on promoting any economic growth regardless of the impact on the environment.
It would be nice if we could improve our environment without having to cripple our economy.
Scientists argue that the long-term impact of the coronavirus pandemic on climate change will depend on how countries and corporations respond to an economic crisis.
The International Energy Agency, or IEA, has warned the virus will weaken global investments in clean energy and industry efforts to reduce emissions, and has called on governments to offer stimulus packages that consider climate change.
But an economic stimulus package that considers global warming will likely not be the response from many countries.
For example, the Prime Minister of the Czech Republic recently urged the European Union to abandon its landmark green law focusing on carbon neutrality as it grapples with the virus outbreak. The Czech Republic depends largely on nuclear energy and coal.
Furthermore, major U.S. airlines are asking for billions of dollars in government aid as they face potential bankruptcy from travel decline, which President Donald Trump has endorsed. Air travel is expected to bounce back after the pandemic subsides, and the industry’s emissions are expected to triple by 2050.
But while lockdown measures designed to stem the spread of the virus have caused a momentary uptick in China's pollution levels, experts warn that when the county starts to reboot its economy the toxic chemicals could up to higher levels than before the epidemic hit.
A fall in oil and steel production, and a 70% reduction in domestic flights, contributed to the fall in emissions, according to the CREA. But the biggest driver was the sharp decline in China's coal usage.
China is the world's biggest producer and consumer of coal, using this resource for 59% of its energy in 2018. As well as running power plants and other heavy industries, coal is also the sole heat source for millions of homes in the vast rural areas of the country.
The country's major coal-fired power stations saw a 36% drop in consumption from February 3 to March 1 compared to the same period last year, according to CREA analysis of WIND data service statistics.
The largest consumers of coal -- coal-fired power plants -- have been affected a lot because electricity demand is down. It's clear that this effect will continue for the next weeks and months, because there has also been a major impact on the demand side of the economy.
In 2017, President Xi Jinping promised to make combating pollution one of China's "three battles," and the following year the Ministry of Ecology and Environment was created.
The policies have resulted in a significant impact, with overall pollution levels 10% lower across Chinese cities between 2017 and 2018, according to a report released last year by Greenpeace and AirVisual.
Climate activists say the crisis could provide a window to ramp up these promised reforms. The world advocates for China to foster this opportunity to transform its economy, to break apart from the old.
Once the coronavirus threat has passed, will China be solely focused on restarting its economy, which was already hurting in the wake of the US-China trade war. That could come at the expense of the environment.
There might be a round of economic stimulus which would inject cheap credits to heavy industries in China, and as a result of that we might see increasing pollutants and also carbon emissions in the second half of this year.
This bounce-back effect -- which can sometimes reverse any overall drop in emissions -- is something called "revenge pollution" and in China it has precedent.
In 2009, the Chinese government launched a giant $586 billion stimulus package in response to the global financial crisis -- the majority of which went to large-scale infrastructure projects.
But the resulting explosion in pollution in the following years led to a public outcry which ushered in the Chinese government's first national air pollution action plan in September 2013.
President Xi has made clear that workers and factories need to ramp up activity as soon as possible if the country is to avoid a steeper economic downturn. Hopefully, China has learned lessons from the past, and not return to the gray skies again.
In neighboring Hong Kong, air quality has also improved since the city entered partial shutdown mode to combat the spread of the coronavirus.
Key air pollutants dropped by nearly a third from January to February, according to data from Hong Kong University School of Public Health, which was analyzed by environmental organization Clean Air Network.
Monitoring of stations in the busiest areas of Hong Kong, including Central, Causeway Bay and Mongkok, revealed that the fine particle pollutant PM2.5 decreased by 32%, while the larger particle pollutant PM10 fell by up to 29%, and nitrogen dioxide (NO2) was reduced by up to 22%.
Pollution in the city is mostly caused by motor vehicles, marine vessels, and power plants in Hong Kong and around the Pearl River Delta, the government says.
The declines in harmful pollutants came in direct correlation with the Hong Kong government's introduction of measures including working from home procedures, the closure of some public facilities, and a partial closure of the border with China. A drop in pollution in mainland China during this period also resulted in less regional smog from the industrial powerhouse cities in the southern province of Guangdong.
There are lots of people who work from home, and that has reduced the traffic and the traffic congestion. Measures were nowhere near as drastic as those in mainland China, but there was still a significant impact.
Fung has been campaigning about the long-term health impact of the air pollution in Hong Kong, which he says causes on average 1,500 premature deaths per year in the city.
For the last decade, Hong Kong's air pollution has been double the World Health Organization's recommended safe level. Especially at the roadside, where a lot of pedestrians and commuters are exposed to that kind of toxic and carcinogenic air pollutants.
Hong Kong's government did introduce a raft of green policies in its recent budget, including a roadmap on cleaner public transport vehicles. Fung says the announcement was a good "first step," but much more needs to be done.
Now, this brief period of cleaner air should, clear clean waters, plant and wildlife recovery, and more healthy soil should send a message for humans to push for longer-term changes.
Adapt or die. Don’t allow a few do make decisions that effects and affects not only others, but every plant, animal, and even the planet itself in any unnatural way. The ways of the old fossil fuels are over. Earth demands clean energy or sacrifice our children to suffer hell. New technology such as solar and wind power creates new jobs to replace the old. Don’t be lazy or a coward to change.

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